It’s that time of year again, and rather than email them out, I’m going to post my MLB predictions here. Last year… let’s not talk about last year’s predictions. I think I guessed 3 out of 8 playoff teams and certainly didn’t predict that an 83-win Cardinals squad would win it all. Oops. I’m going […]
It’s that time of year again, and rather than email them out, I’m going to post my MLB predictions here. Last year… let’s not talk about last year’s predictions. I think I guessed 3 out of 8 playoff teams and certainly didn’t predict that an 83-win Cardinals squad would win it all. Oops.
I’m going one division at a time, and I’m starting with the AL West. In looking at the AL West, one thing jumps out at you: man, this is a division with a bunch of crappy teams in it. I think it’s the second weakest in baseball after the NL Central, and I think the division winner could come in around 85 wins.
Everyone seems to be picking the Angels, but outside of Vlad Guerrero, I don’t see how they’re going to score any runs. The Gary Matthews Jr. signing might have been the worst signing of all time if not for the Gil Meche fiasco, and that was *before* he got popped for HGH. I see him hitting around .260 with ten or twelve dingers. I know what they were thinking; they had a solid pitching rotation, good bullpen, and wanted to make a big move in free agency, but they passed on Soriano and missed out on Aramis Ramirez when he re-signed in Chicago. Unfortunately, that does not justify dropping $50 mil on a guy who has had exactly one above average year in the majors. Bottom line, good rotation, craptacular lineup, and I think they will stumble terribly down the stretch.
I find myself tempted to pick Texas, just as I am tempted to pick them every year, because of that great infield and impressive bullpen. But I have a few rules. 1) Never pick a team with a 39-year old Kenny Lofton to win their division, and 2) Never pick a team who has anointed Eric Gagne the closer position after he’s pitched about as many innings over the last two years as Manny Ramirez has played at shortstop. The one thing I can predict for sure about this team is that their infield will hit close to 100 home runs and that trading Otsuka would be absolutely asinine. Unfortunately, I’m not sold on the 3-4-5 in their rotation and I just don’t think that merely replacing Buck Showalter is enough to turn around the team’s fortunes. However, I do think they’ll threaten the top two in the division a little bit, and I’ll pick them to finish second as the Angels fade.
Anyone familiar with the AL West realizes that this means I’m picking the A’s to win the division, which is something of a departure for me. Even when I thought the A’s were the favorite to win the West, I’ve always managed to convince myself otherwise, largely because my trips to the McAfee Coliseum made it clear that aside from a proud minority, there are no A’s fans, there are just Raiders fans who come for the drinking and the violence. While you’ll never convince me that the A’s kept the right lefty given the contracts that both were expecting, they’ve got a good staff, a lineup made slightly more interesting by the addition of Piazza trying to pull a rejuvenation effort along the lines of Frank Thomas c. 2006, and a bullpen with Alan Embree in it! How could I pick anyone else (particularly in a division as lousy as this one)?
More importantly, they’re moving to Fremont, give them the division at least, right?
And, Seattle. Um…
Right.
Where to begin?
How about by quoting the boys at the Hardball Times, who wrote that the 2007 Mariners roster “apparently was built by throwing darts at a board. While intoxicated. And blindfolded.”
No, that’s not fair. Let’s start again.
Um… Felix Hernandez is good. In fact, he’s probably the most promising pitcher in the AL with a 4.52 ERA last year.
(beat)
You know, that wasn’t fair either. Let’s skip their lineup because it includes black holes like the Joses Vidro and Guillen, and the rotation because it is staking its success on King Felix, who was only slightly less of a disappointment last year to the Mariners than Josh Beckett was to the Red Sox and yours truly was to the Lions. Let’s focus on the one intriguing thing about their by all accounts disastrous offseason, which is to say their allocation of greenbacks.
Now, the obvious move would have been to re-sign Ichiro, their former MVP (although granted, that was highway robbery against Giambi), their only consistent offensive threat, and the only guy who, even after the Sexson/Beltre signings, still has that AIS potential. (If you’re unaware of AIS potential, then you clearly missed out on the heyday of Astros Connection, one of the great baseball websites of all time, which referred to Danny Darwin as Dr. Death, and spoke in hushed tones about “opening a can of Orange Whup Ass.” Anyway, AIS means “asses in seats,” and Ichiro is the only guy aside from King 4.52 ERA who is going to put them there in Seattle if the team sucks as bad over the next two years as any reasonable human being would expect them to, even in such a wack division. )
They did not do that. Instead, they signed… Jose Guillen. Hmm. Oh, right. Chris Reitsma too. Um… Miguel Batista and Jeff Weaver for almost $35 million. Uh…
So here’s the thing. Contrary to anything you might read on the USS Mariner, Bavasi can’t really be that stupid. He can’t possibly have thought that those ducats were better spent on guys coming off career-killing injury-plagued years and on Jeff Weaver. (P.S. Thanks again, Jeff. Your implosion in pinstripes was one of the most satisfying things I’ve ever watched as a Red Sox fan. Moreover, I’d like to thank you for the best game you ever pitched as a Yankee, a game where you left leading by 3-0 in the seventh and yielded the game to the immortal Chris Hammond. Before your A was I the S, the score was 4-3 Red Sox and you were wondering what the hell happened to your career. Brilliant.)
But back to the M’s. Here’s my theory: They had to know that the cripple crew they brought into SafeCo this year was in no way a more justifiable expenditure of dollars- from both a business and a baseball perspective- than extending Ichiro. I mean, they had to. I am going to hazard the guess that they approached Ichiro and he made it clear in no uncertain terms that he would not be re-signing in Seattle. So unless the entire AL West collapses faster than the Tacoma Narrows and the M’s find themselves in contention near the trading deadline, I have to assume the Mariners are smart enough to flip Ichiro for whatever they can get. Now if only there was a big-market team that would be interested in a big-name right fielder, a team that has an unlimited payroll and likes to make flashy moves at the trading deadline and considers the world series their god-given right year after year….
Well…
Hope I’m wrong.
On to the AL Central later in the week!