It’s always nice when, immediately after posting one’s skepticism about Felix Hernandez, he drops 12 K’s on the Athletics. However, one performance is not enough to shake my predictions, as my continued pessimism regarding Gil Meche (below) will demonstrate. The AL Central is by far the hardest division for me to pick, and I don’t […]
It’s always nice when, immediately after posting one’s skepticism about Felix Hernandez, he drops 12 K’s on the Athletics. However, one performance is not enough to shake my predictions, as my continued pessimism regarding Gil Meche (below) will demonstrate.
The AL Central is by far the hardest division for me to pick, and I don’t think I’ve gotten it right once in the four or so years I’ve done these predictions. You could make a case that it will be the toughest division in baseball (although I think that will go to the AL East), and that four teams have a legitimate shot at winning it.
I’m going with the Tigers, and before I say why, I just want to note that the departure of Gary Sheffield from the MFYs was more than a little bittersweet from my perspective. I always applaud players that I despise going to the Yankees, but it’s rare that any player singlehandedly encapsulates everything I hate about the Yankees, injustice, crime, bland food, and skin rashes. Gary Sheffield was that player.
It’s hard to imagine a more loathsome character, from his me-first attitude to his involvement in the steroid scandal to his proclivity for taking swings at fans in the stands. He’s even friends with Barry Bonds! In fact, it’s pretty clear that he’s the only guy in baseball who can give Barry a run for his money on sheer assholery. So I’ll miss you in pinstripes, Gary. Go with God.
Anyway, I’ll go with the Tigers just because I believe in the rotation and they added the big bat they needed. While I’m skeptical that Bonderman, Verlander, and Zumaya (let alone Kenny Rogers, about whom I’ve been making smoke & mirror jokes for roughly a decade) will all duplicate their 2006 performances, I think they’ll be the second best rotation in the league behind the Red Sox, and if their pythagorean evens out, they’ll be stronger than they were last year.
Frankly, my gut tells me the Indians, but it did that last year as well, and as the saying goes, sometimes my guts have s*** for brains. The addition of Trot Nixon makes it even more difficult to pick against them, but unfortunately, Trot, I believe that ship has sailed. Trot has maybe 2-3 good years left, so it’s not like the guy is dead, but the Trot Nixon era was an emotionTal one in Boston. For years- YEARS- everyone talked about this stud centerfielder they had in AA that was going to make everyone forget about Fred Lynn. The excitement, even as the Patriots were returning to respectability, was palpable. The CHB, who I will discuss in length for his recent shank job on Schilling that may have been the single least professional hatchet job by a columnist I’ve ever read, to his credit once had a great line about the excitement Nixon’s impending arrival in Boston was causing. In mentioning that guys like Lee Tinsley and Darren Bragg were manning the once proud Fenway Outfield, CHB referred to “Tin soldiers and Nixon coming.” Then he hurt his back, and again, and it seemed like he would never make it. I once asked my Dad about Nixon, and he could only respond “He’s done. Back injuries. They never get better. They only get worse.”
Well, ol’ Trot made it to Fenway after all, and along the way, he managed to get a couple of big hits. My heart hopes he rebounds and hits 25 dingers, but my head thinks he’ll play fewer than 60 games. What a drag it is getting old.
Anyway, back to the Indians. Not sold on the bullpen, don’t think Marte is ready, don’t think they’ll stay healthy. Second place it is.
The enigmatic White Sox are third. I never know what to make of these guys. I do know that Ozzie Guillen is saying that they’re going back to smallball, which, if true, is code for “I don’t really know what I’m talking about.” Uh, Ozzie: didn’t you guys hit like 200 dingers in the year you won the World Series? Yeah, I thought so. Now you’re makingguys like Jim Thome practicing hitting the ball the other way to score a guy from third with fewer than two outs? Good luck with that. The irony was that I thought the 2005 club just caught lightning in a bottle and wasn’t really all that good, but then they actually got better in the offseason but couldn’t win out in a brutally tough central. I can’t help but think that Buehrle is cooked, that two of Thome and Dye and Konerko will spend significant time on the DL, and lineup won’t be as strong as last year. Fortunately, DARRIN ERSTAD IS HERE TO SAVE THE DAY! Oh-PS+ of 60, wait.
The Twins. No Liriano? No chance. Fun team to watch on any given day, but trotting out Ramon Ortiz and Sidney Ponson (who at this point in his career may have eaten Ramon Ortiz) every five days is, uh, not a good idea. It wasn’t a good idea in 2004, and it certainly isn’t in 2007.
And… Kansas City.
It’s sad that a once proud franchise with a decent ballpark just has absolutely no chance every year. I mean, the big excitement this year is over rookie 3B Alex Gordon, who from the one game I’ve saw, looks like he could be a hall of famer the same way Saw IV could be a surprise best picture nod. The only good thing to talk about is the Gil Meche signing, or as I like to call it, Baseball Galipoli.
Here’s the thing about the Royals: last year they had a very promising 62-100 season. Moreover, they scored 757 runs while allowing 971 runs, which means that over the course of the entire season, their pitching staff allowed four fewer runs than the Yankees score in 1927. Shrewdly, however, they recognized that that run differential projects to a Pythagorean W-L record of just 63-99, so given slightly better luck, all the pieces were in place should they decide to break the bank and overpay the one player that would bring them to the promised land: Gil Meche.
Despite Gil “Ga” Meche owning the Red Sox on opening day, it is worth pointing out that this is quite possibly the worst signing of all time. I know everyone has already killed KC for this one, but this article at the Hardball Times is worth a read. The bottom line is that Gil Meche, for all his early promise, is a guy who a) has not had an above average season in the major leagues since Bill Clinton was president, b) it was only a half season where he started 15 games, c) since then he’s lost between 5 and 10 mph on his heater, according to various reports, and, oh by the way d) tore his labrum and missed nearly two full seasons.
So sure. There is a good chance that Gil Meche will not be a terrible pitcher this year, but he’ll be making $11 million (it’s less than that, but I’m counting AAV). The odds of the next few years being terrible increase each year due to his injury history and the fact that the Royals will be counting on him to lead the staff, and at the end of the day, paying $11 million for the upside of mediocrity isn’t exactly the missing piece to the championship puzzle for the Royals.
Man, it must be depressing to be a Kansas City fan. But then, I say that every year.