This comes from my buddy Joel, famous primarily for playing a mean trombone and having the cutest child I have ever seen. He knows a lot more about the Mariners than I do, so I thought including his opinions would be worthwhile. That said, a 96 ERA+ is a 96 ERA+… Ev, I enjoyed the […]
This comes from my buddy Joel, famous primarily for playing a mean trombone and having the cutest child I have ever seen. He knows a lot more about the Mariners than I do, so I thought including his opinions would be worthwhile. That said, a 96 ERA+ is a 96 ERA+…
Ev,
I enjoyed the preview. The general consensus by everyone with a pulse is that the M’s will find themselves dead last once again, and it’s hard to disagree. Unless there’s a spectacular confluence of over-perfomers, the likes of which we last saw in 2001, they’ll be lucky to sniff the playoffs.
That said, I do have two bones to pick:
1. I don’t think you give KF enough credit. For a kid everyone expected to be the next Doc Gooden, his 4.52 ERA was admittedly dismal and his 12 wins decidedly pedestrian. Even his ERA+ of 96 confirms that he was basically a league-average pitcher. It’s important to note, though, that El Rey was the victim of some bad luck in 2006. A lot more of his fly balls jumped for home runs ( 18.4% HR/F vs 13.9% in 2005, plus 1.09 HR/G from 0.58 in 2005). That, and his BA on balls in play spiked a lot. The kid got some rough breaks while pitching below his potential; I think it’s reasonable to expect that he has better luck in 2007. It’s worth mentioning that his 176 Ks and 8.3 Ks/9 were promising, and his LOB% was roughly equal to 2005. Does this mean he was good in 2006? Not really, but I don’t think he was the disappointment everyone paints him to be.
Perhaps more importantly, the kid decided he doesn’t want to go through life wearing a Bartolo Colon suit and busted his ass in the off-season to lose weight and get in shape. Felix is basically taking the anti-Freddy Garcia approach to pitching: rather than seeing lounging and partying as the birthright of a professional athlete, he’s working his ass off. It might even be that his struggles last year lit a fire under him and made him realize he needs to learn to pitch, not just throw. To an M’s fan desperate for good news, that’s awfully promising.
Does that guarantee he wins the string of Cy Young’s we all expected a year ago? No, of course not. But I’m optimistic.
2. I don’t see a hidden method to Bavasi’s madness, particularly as it relates to Ichiro. You mention it, but you can’t underestimate the AIS factor Ichiro brings to the club. You’re absolutely right that he’s the only Mariner now that has it, and that’s a huge deal. Half of the M’s attendance comes from outside of King, Pierce, and Snohomish counties; a quarter of the weekend crowd is out-of-state. Take away the team’s single gate attraction, and you’re not going to get people from Olympia driving two hours to watch a sub-.500 team or Japanese tourists trekking to Seattle just to watch Kenji behind the plate.
The Mariners have been a very successful business for the last 10 years, and it’s because they’ve been able to market the team well. They’ve had bunches of marquee likeable dudes (Edgar, Buhner, Griff, pre-soulless A-Rod, etc.) they can parade in a beautiful ballpark in a town that loves bandwagons. There is no bandwagon now, the park is 8 years old, and Ichiro is the last marquee likeable dude. Closed door discussions or not, Bavasi has not established much proficiency in the art of the smart baseball decision – I can’t imagine they’re planning to let Ichiro go.
As for this offseason, I think Bavasi planned to spend a boatload of cash on big name free agents – primarily an ace starter and a big bat. When the players he wanted went elsewhere, he stuck to his guns and spent the money. His job is on the line this year. What’s more, Ichiro’s decision hinges entirely on the M’s 2007 performance. Going for broke was the only chance he had – when he missed his targets, he felt like had to make gambles. I don’t think anyone is happy with what he landed. That said, I will applaud him for not getting tied up multi-year deals that will hamstring the franchise for years to come. (There’s a great ussm rundown here that highlights my favorite non-Gil-Meche off-season signing: http://ussmariner.com/2006/11/22/more-insanity/.) My major disappointment is that he hemmoraged young talent – in particular, Rafael Soriano and Chris Snelling (who is tearing the cover off the ball in meaningless Florida games) – to do it.
Hmm…probably time for me to do some actual work now. I look forward to the rest…
Joel